sarjau: Saudi’s led coalition war against Hothis in Yemen is expensive and it is not sustainable for too long.

Against all odds the Baluch believe that the Persian are spread too thin all over the middle East and can be defeated in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Bahrain and in the occupied Baluchistan. We believe that the Persian do not have enough resources and man power to maintain so many wars in different fronts.

Saudi’s led coalition war against Hothis in Yemen is expensive and it is not sustainable for too long.

Saudis led coalition single warplane cost tens of millions of dollars to bomb a cowshed against Iranian $350. Saudi led coalition has firepower supremacy but Iranian has organisation superiority. The Iranian are waiting for the Saudi led coalition to run out of targets and make mistakes or hit too many wrong targets. Iranian are also waiting for the Saudi led coalition forces to enter Yemen.

Saudi led coalition are too rich and too powerful compare to Houthis and Iranian but the American were also powerful in Iraq. Iranian defeated the American in Iraq through Shiite militias with little cost to Iranian and they have that experience. Persian are expert on creating chaos and managing it to their advantage.

To win or lose a war is depend on country’s allies the Gulf States are alone in this war against Iranian and Iranian proxy. The Iranian are also waiting for opportunities to mobilise their international supporters in the United Nations to negotiate a power sharing deal for Houthis in Yemen similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon and secure Iranian influence in Yemen forever.

From Yemen, Lebanon, Bahrain the Iranian will incite, mobilise and organise the Saudi Arabia Shiite and Khawarij population against Saudi. Saudi Arabia has large Shiite and Khawarij population enough to create problem for Saudi.

Sisi is an ally or opportunist?

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/14/yemen-iran-saudi-arabia-middle-east/

“In public, Sisi praises the Gulf leaders — but in leaked private recordings, he dismisses them as oil bumpkins who can be bilked of their money by more dynamic Arab nations. Qatar no longer openly defies Saudi Arabia, but it still supports Muslim Brothers and jihadis in Syria to the extent it can, and in opposition to Saudi preferences.”

It has been said that states have no prominent friend and no prominent enemy but an interest.
Pakistan is a friend or enemy?

Pakistan decision not to join the Arab has its logic in Obama Administration. Pakistan has it eyes, ears in Washington DC. And Pakistan sense or hear noises that this war is not winnable and they decided to be in Iran camp.

Pakistanis are investing on Iran and 1+5 nuclear deal. The Pakistani sense that the Iranian are the winner in this conflict regardless of outcome from Yemen conflict.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/14/yemen-iran-saudi-arabia-middle-east/ Saudi and the Gulf states have supported Pakistan financially and diplomatically throughout Pakistan history. But Pakistan has decided to join Iran against the Gulf States. The Baluch always knew that the Pakistan national interests are with Iran and china, but our Arab cousins ignored the Baluchistan issue.

Iraq;

Iraqi prime minister was in Washington and he was reading from Iranian page on Saudi led coalition against Houthis. He said the Obama administration is not happy with Saudi led war against Houthis, the white house has denied his claim. But the Iraqi prime minister claims may perhaps has some truth in it, otherwise he would have not said it in public while he was still in America.

Baluch;

The Baluch have cautioned the Arab Gulf states from their previous experience during Persian Shiite revolution many years ago but the Baluch voices have been ignored. The Baluch are the victim of Persian expansionist policy and the Baluch know what it take to stop Persian menace.

Mehrab Sarjov is a political activist based in London and strive for an independent Baluchistan.